3G iPhone announcement in June likely, launch not likely. First 3g launch in Switzerland?

Appelinsider is announcing a 3g iPhone launch for June. While I think there will be an announcement about a 3g iPhone, I don’t think the 3g iPhone will be launched in June. First of all, the FCC filing did not show up yet. Apple has to file devices with new GSM radios with the FCC. This filing has not come up yet, which makes a launch in June very unlikely. I would say, if the 3g iPhone is announced in June, it might be available by the end of September or October, not any earlier.

I also think, that the 3g iPhone will either come out for Europe or the US first, though it won’t be available at the same time in both markets for launch. The reason for this is, that WCDMA 2100 (for the US) and the HSxPA standard (Europe) are not compatible. These standards use different radio bands, and while there are quad-band radio chips support both, they usually support high speed access only on one of the compatible bands.

I guess, the 3g iPhone could be launched in markets that have excellent 3g coverage first. Markets like Switzerland, Austria or Luxembourg might be the first to get the 3g iPhone. These markets are rather small, though in Switzerland’s case, they might be very profitable. Orange does not have an EDGE network in Switzerland and they won’t build one for the iPhone either, though it is likely that Orange will be Apple’s partner for the iPhone in Switzerland. After all, Orange did get the exclusive rights for France, and for the sake of simplicity and economies of scale, Orange would be a first-choice launch partner, for countries where the company is present. This would be consistent with the example of Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), which got to launch the iPhone in Austria after they successfully launched the iPhone in Germany first. The 3g iPhone, not depending on EDGE anymore, might allow Orange to finally launch the iPhone in those markets as well.

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